Graphite products hold an irreplaceable position in the electrode field due to their excellent conductivity, high-temperature resistance, and chemical stability. With the acceleration of global energy transition and industrial technological upgrades, the demand for graphite electrodes is experiencing structural growth, particularly driven by expanding applications in electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, new energy batteries, and semiconductor manufacturing. This article systematically analyzes the demand dynamics and development prospects of graphite electrodes from the perspectives of demand drivers, market patterns, technological innovation, and future trends.
I. Core Demand Drivers
1. Large-Scale Adoption of EAF Steelmaking
As a short-process steelmaking method with low energy consumption and reduced carbon emissions, EAF steelmaking has become a critical pathway for the steel industry’s transformation under the “dual carbon” goals. China plans to increase the proportion of EAF steel from the current 10% to 15–20% by 2025, directly driving demand for graphite electrodes. It is predicted that China’s demand for graphite electrodes in EAF steelmaking will reach 860,000 tons by 2025, a 10% increase from current levels. Meanwhile, global steel demand is expected to rebound by 1.2% to 1.772 billion tons in 2025, further stimulating international market demand.
2. Explosive Growth of the New Energy Industry
The rapid development of new energy vehicles and the photovoltaic industry has raised requirements for high-purity, high-performance graphite electrodes. Lithium battery anode production relies heavily on graphite products, with global anode material output projected to reach 2.625 million tons by 2025, over 98% of which will originate domestically. Additionally, surging demand for graphite thermal field components in monocrystalline silicon growth furnaces is driving the expansion of the high-end graphite electrode market.
3. Technological Advancements in Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing
In the semiconductor sector, graphite electrodes are used in crystal growth furnaces and etching equipment, requiring purity levels exceeding 99.999%. With the growing demand for 5G and AI chips, the annual growth rate for high-precision graphite electrodes exceeds 15%.
II. Current Market Supply-Demand Dynamics and Challenges
1. Regional Supply-Demand Imbalances
As a major graphite electrode producer, China’s output reached 637,700 tons in 2024, with exports accounting for 52% of total production. However, the domestic market faces structural contradictions: overcapacity in low- to mid-range products contrasts with reliance on imports for high-end products (e.g., ultra-high-power electrodes with diameters exceeding 800 mm). Internationally, emerging economies like Russia and the UAE show significant demand growth, but trade barriers (e.g., anti-dumping policies) heighten export uncertainties.
2. Impact of Raw Material Price Volatility
Prices of needle coke and petroleum coke—key raw materials for graphite electrodes—surged in early 2025, with needle coke prices rising by 5,500 RMB/ton to 32,000 RMB/ton within half a month, sharply increasing production costs. Faced with cost pressures, many small and medium-sized enterprises have exited the market, leading to increased industry consolidation toward leading players.
3. Environmental Regulations and Production Constraints
Stricter environmental regulations require graphite electrode manufacturers to upgrade equipment to reduce emissions. Environmental production restrictions in regions like Hebei and Henan have caused periodic supply shortages, while the energy-intensive nature of graphitization processes limits capacity expansion.
III. Technological Innovations and Product Upgrading Directions
1. Breakthroughs in Ultra-High-Power (UHP) Electrodes
UHP graphite electrodes, with low resistivity (≤6 μΩ·m) and high flexural strength (≥15 MPa), are core materials for improving EAF steelmaking efficiency. Internal series graphitization technology reduces energy consumption by 30% and optimizes lattice structures through electromagnetic stirring. By 2025, UHP electrode prices are expected to exceed 18,000 RMB/ton, capturing over 60% of total market demand.
2. Application of Composite Materials
Silicon carbide-graphite composite electrodes enhance corrosion resistance for high-temperature molten salt electrolysis, while graphene coating technology reduces contact resistance by 40% and extends electrode lifespan. Such high-value-added products are becoming focal points for technological competition.
3. Intelligent Manufacturing and Process Optimization
Digital twin technology enables dynamic simulation of process parameters, achieving over 90% accuracy in defect prediction. Adaptive machining systems monitor cutting conditions in real time via acoustic emission sensors, with error compensation accuracy reaching 0.1 μm. These innovations shorten processing cycles by 20% and increase yield rates to above 98%.
IV. Future Trends and Strategic Recommendations
1. Green Manufacturing and Circular Economy
Graphite dust recovery rates must exceed 99.9%, while baking waste heat recovery systems can reclaim 35% of energy consumption. Enterprises need to establish closed-loop “production-recycling-regeneration” systems to comply with international standards like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
2. Vertical Industry Chain Integration
Full-chain integration—from graphite mining to high-end electrode production—mitigates raw material volatility risks. Companies with in-house needle coke production capabilities gain significant cost advantages.
3. Global Market Expansion
Localized production bases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East can circumvent trade barriers. Participation in international standard-setting (e.g., ISO graphite electrode testing standards) enhances technological influence.
4. Policy Incentives and Risk Management
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan explicitly supports short-process steelmaking, with EAF capacity replacement subsidies sustaining demand. Companies must address geopolitical risks (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s impact on European markets) and hedge price fluctuations using financial instruments.
Conclusion
By 2025, the graphite electrode industry will enter a new phase driven by demand upgrades and technological innovation. The proliferation of EAF steelmaking, expansion of new energy industries, and precision requirements of semiconductor manufacturing will create a trillion-level market space. However, challenges such as high raw material costs, environmental pressures, and intensified global competition necessitate accelerated transitions toward high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing. Leading enterprises with technological reserves and integrated supply chains will dominate the market landscape, while cross-industry synergies (e.g., collaborative R&D in graphene batteries and electrodes) may unlock growth bottlenecks. Throughout this evolution, the synergy of policy guidance, technological innovation, and market demand will reshape the global graphite electrode industry ecosystem.
